📢 The National Bank has decided to keep the base rate at 16.5%

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10.06.2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to maintain the base rate at 16.5% with a +/- 1 pp corridor. We had previously forecasted that the rate would remain unchanged.


🔹 Why was this decision made?


▪️ As of May, annual inflation accelerated to 11.3% (up from 10.7% in April), while monthly inflation, on the contrary, slowed to 0.9% (down from 1.2%).


▪️ The main contributors to rising prices were service tariffs — especially cold water (+97.6%) — and the weakening of the tenge (down 15.9% year-on-year).


▪️ The contribution of food inflation increased by 2.6 pp, while non-food inflation (-0.8 pp) and service inflation (-1.8 pp) showed declining contributions.


🔹 The external environment remains inflationary due to high market uncertainty.


🔹 There is also a risk of internal inflationary pressure. According to preliminary government data, GDP grew by a record 6.0% in the first four months.


🔹 The current decision by the National Bank underscores the need for a tighter monetary policy. In the coming months, the regulator will closely monitor inflation trends, the tenge exchange rate, and economic activity.


The next meeting of the National Bank is scheduled for July 11.


🔗 Official statement by the NBK